Last updated: 2024-05-01

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Rmd 67a1ff6 Matthew Stephens 2024-05-01 workflowr::wflow_publish("logistic_z_scores.Rmd")

library(ggplot2)
library(dplyr)

Attaching package: 'dplyr'
The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':

    filter, lag
The following objects are masked from 'package:base':

    intersect, setdiff, setequal, union
set.seed(1)

Introduction

I want to document an unexpected phenomena I saw when computing z score for logistic regression: when the effect size increases the z scores eventually start decreasing.

Simulation code

First I set up some simulation code for simple logistic regression. We have \(x_i \sim N(0,1)\) and \(y_i \sim Bernoulli(\frac{e^{x_i b}}{1+e^{x_i b}})\). I set up this code to do some comparisons between linear and logistic regression, so it returns more things than we need here.

#' simulate data and return dataframe of results from linear and logistic regression
#' @param n sample size
#' @param b effect size
#' @param nsim number of simulations
simdata = function(n,b,binarize_x=FALSE){
  x = rnorm(n)
  if(binarize_x){
    x = (x > 0) - ( x < 0 )
  }
  y = rbinom(n, 1, exp(x*b)/(1+exp(x*b)))
  coeff.log = summary(glm(y ~ x, family=binomial))$coef
  coeff.lin = summary(glm(y ~ x, family=gaussian))$coef
  z.log = coeff.log[2,3] # z score
  bhat.log = coeff.log[2,1] # estimated effect size
  s.log = coeff.log[2,2] # standard error
  z.lin = coeff.lin[2,3] # z score
  s.lin = coeff.lin[2,2]
  bhat.lin = coeff.lin[2,1]
  
  # these are the normal log-likelihood ratios
  nllr.lin = dnorm(bhat.lin,mean = bhat.lin, sd = s.lin, log=TRUE)-dnorm(bhat.lin, mean = 0, sd = s.lin,log=TRUE)
  nllr.log = dnorm(bhat.log,mean = bhat.log, sd = s.log, log=TRUE)-dnorm(bhat.log, mean = 0, sd = s.log,log=TRUE)
  
  # these are the logistic/binomial log-likelihood ratios
  llr.lin = sum(dbinom(y, size=1, prob=1/(1+exp(-x*bhat.lin)), log=TRUE) - dbinom(y, size=1, prob=0.5, log=TRUE))
  
  llr.log = sum(dbinom(y, size=1, prob=1/(1+exp(-x*bhat.log)), log=TRUE) - dbinom(y, size=1, prob=0.5, log=TRUE))
  
  return(data.frame(n=n, b=b, z.log=z.log, s.log=s.log, bhat.log=bhat.log, z.lin=z.lin, s.lin=s.lin, bhat.lin=bhat.lin, nllr.lin = nllr.lin, nllr.log = nllr.log, llr.lin = llr.lin, llr.log = llr.log))
}

dsimdata = function(design){
  design %>% rowwise() %>% mutate(simdata(n,b))
}

Simulate Data

I simulate data with two different sample sizes and effect sizes that are \(b \sim N(0,sd=2)\). The z scores increase with b, but then start to decrease.

sim1 = dsimdata(data.frame(n=1000,b=rnorm(50,0,2)))
sim2 = dsimdata(data.frame(n=10000,b=rnorm(50,0,2)))
sim3 = dsimdata(data.frame(n=100000,b=rnorm(50,0,2)))
ggplot(rbind(sim1,sim2,sim3), 
       mapping = aes(b, z.log)) +
  geom_point(mapping = aes(color = b, shape=as.factor(n))) + 
   ylab("z score (logistic regression)")

Try binary x

I repated this with binary x to see if it changes things. It seems to be the same story.

sim1b = dsimdata(data.frame(n=1000,b=rnorm(50,0,2), binarize_x = TRUE))
sim2b = dsimdata(data.frame(n=10000,b=rnorm(50,0,2), binarize_x = TRUE))
sim3b = dsimdata(data.frame(n=100000,b=rnorm(50,0,2), binarize_x = TRUE))
ggplot(rbind(sim1b,sim2b,sim3b), 
       mapping = aes(b, z.log)) +
  geom_point(mapping = aes(color = b, shape=as.factor(n))) +
  ylab("z score (logistic regression)")

Single simulation

Just to emphasize: this phenomena seems not to be related to problems of separation or even small counts, since it occurs even with large n at moderate b.

Here is a single simulation to illustrate that we have large counts in all four groups when n=100k and b=2.5.

n = 100000
b = 2.5
x = rnorm(n)
x = (x>0) - (x<0) # binarize x
y = rbinom(n, 1, exp(x*b)/(1+exp(x*b)))
table(x,y)
    y
x        0     1
  -1 46105  3740
  1   3803 46352

sessionInfo()
R version 4.2.1 (2022-06-23)
Platform: x86_64-apple-darwin17.0 (64-bit)
Running under: macOS Big Sur ... 10.16

Matrix products: default
BLAS:   /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.2/Resources/lib/libRblas.0.dylib
LAPACK: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.2/Resources/lib/libRlapack.dylib

locale:
[1] en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/C/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8

attached base packages:
[1] stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     

other attached packages:
[1] dplyr_1.1.4   ggplot2_3.4.4

loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
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[13] jsonlite_1.8.8    evaluate_0.23     lifecycle_1.0.4   tibble_3.2.1     
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[21] yaml_2.3.8        xfun_0.41         fastmap_1.1.1     withr_3.0.0      
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[41] scales_1.3.0      promises_1.2.1    htmltools_0.5.7   colorspace_2.1-0 
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[49] munsell_0.5.0     cachem_1.0.8